Stochastic Modeling of Infrastructure Deterioration: an Application to Concrete Bridge Decks

This paper presents an application for the development of stochastic models to predict the deterioration of infrastructure facilities. The main objective is to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of two types of models, namely state-based and time-based models, which will guide decision makers in selecting the most appropriate model type according to management needs and data availability. Concrete bridge decks are selected for this application because they are considered one of the most deteriorating infrastructure components. Inventory and condition data required for developing the stochastic deterioration models are obtained from the database of the Ministére des Transports du Québec (MTQ). Markov-chain models, as an example of state-based models, and nonparametric time-based models are developed for bridge decks when no maintenance actions are taken. Although this application demonstrates the development of stochastic deterioration models for concrete bridge decks, these models can be developed to predict the performance of other infrastructure facilities for network level analysis.